The US commercial and industrial (C&I) solar and storage market is currently navigating what industry veteran Claire Broido Johnson calls the “messy middle.” While the sector is poised for growth, the path from a project’s initial concept to final commissioning is fraught with supply chain volatility, execution pitfalls, and a financing landscape in transition.
This environment was discussed in the session called Navigating C&I Solar and Storage from Concept to Commissioning, moderated by pv magazine USA and featuring Spencer Wells, CEO of Wells Energy Development, Claire Broido Johnson, president of Sunrock Distributed Generation, John McDonnell, CEO of WattHub Renewables, and Stein Arntson, enterprise account manager at Aurora Solar/HelioScope.
The panelists mapped out a 2026 landscape where the wild west of shifting solar and storage economics is forcing developers to become more disciplined and data driven.
Storage paradox
The panelists agreed that energy storage is currently reliving the early, chaotic days of the solar industry. Johnson was blunt in her assessment: “Battery storage in 2026 feels very much like solar in 2005.”
In this phase, storage is far from being a commoditized product. For capital partners and investors, the approved vendor list (AVL) remains short. The risks, ranging from fire safety concerns to supply chain instability, mean investors are demanding higher internal rates of return (IRR) to justify the exposure.
Johnson warned that while the storage market is destined for growth, many hardware companies today likely won’t exist long enough to see the market mature.
Spencer Wells described a bifurcated supply chain. On the solar side, there is finally predictability. Developers generally know which manufacturers meet foreign entity of concern (FEOC) and domestic content requirements. However, storage is trapped in ambiguity. FEOC-compliant battery cells are difficult to source, and lead times for batteries that qualify for domestic content bonuses are stretching between 12 and 18 months.
Compressed margins
In a market defined by high interest rates and tightening margins, the concept phase of a project has never been more critical. Stein Arntson of design software provider Aurora Solar and HelioScope noted that while the industry expects 3% annual growth through 2030, 2026 is specifically a “year of figuring it all out.”
Arntson argued that the primary challenge facing developers isn’t a lack of demand, but one of margin compression. Rising utility rates ensure demand is there, but when every penny counts, a project can be killed by poor initial design. Arntson argued that accurate production modeling is a risk-mitigation necessity, not just a sales tool.
As the industry shifts toward complex solar-plus-storage or storage-only energy service agreements (ESAs), software must model avoided-cost scenarios with precision. If a developer cannot prove exactly how a battery will perform for peak shaving or demand response under a specific utility tariff, financing will dry up.
Fire code bottleneck
McDonnell revealed physical pitfalls that can turn a profitable project into a liability. One common issue arises when residential installers attempt to scale into the C&I space without adjusting technical standards. McDonnell noted that commercial projects carry vastly different burdens, such as regulatory requirements and complex capital improvement laws.
He cited an example where an engineer specified the wrong sized bolts for a raised roof installation, costing the team significant time and capital to rectify.
“Your crew has to know the install manuals, from racking and mounting to modules,” McDonnell said.
Regulatory lag for battery safety was a recurring theme. Johnson shared a case study of a storage project in California that had reached substantial completion, only for the county to inform the team that the fire code required $500,000 in additional work.
The team shared the cost and negotiated a power purchase agreement (PPA) rate increase with the offtaker to save the project, but the experience underscored how quickly unforeseen costs can reshape project economics.
After the ITC
The future of federal incentives is currently a hot topic for the US industry. The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has been the lifeblood of the industry, but Johnson argued that solar is increasingly cost-effective without it in states with high and rising utility rates.
Some panelists suggested that a post-ITC era might even be a relief. McDonnell pointed out that removing reliance on complex tax equity structures would eliminate the massive soft costs associated with the various attorneys, accountants, and insurers required to close such deals. These costs can add six or seven figures to a project’s budget.
The panel’s collective vision for the next decade was a total inversion of the status quo. Instead of solar being the primary asset with a battery on the side, the industry is moving toward a model where the battery is the main asset, and the solar array is the secondary component used to charge it.
The messy middle represents the growing pains of an industry transitioning from a niche subsidized market to a foundational pillar of the US power grid. For those developers who can bridge the gap between a digital concept and a commissioned asset, the rewards in the C&I space have never been higher.
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