In its latest release of Electric Monthly Update, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects 78 GW of generating capacity additions in 2022 through 2023. A majority of the additions will be large-scale solar and energy storage projects, forecast to add 62% of the total figure at 49 GW. These totals do not include capacity added by smaller-scale distributed rooftop solar project
Dependent on configuration and charging sources, both solar and now energy storage may be eligible for the federal Investment Tax Credit, which is scheduled to phase down by 2024. The credit was extended to 26% in 2021 and 2022, will step down to 22% in 2023 before falling to 10% in 2024 onward.
Utility-scale solar is expected to add 49% (38 GW) of capacity. Since 2020, the sector has added more capacity (19 GW) than wind (11 GW), and that trend is expected to continue. In 2022, solar PV is forecast to add 21 GW to the grid, and wind is pegged for 16 GW.
Battery storage is set for big gains as well, with EIA estimating 10 GW capacity to be added over two years. Over 60% of this capacity is expected to be co-located with solar PV projects. Battery growth is expected to grow 300% from 2020 through 2021, with 1.5 GW installed last year, and an estimated 4.5 GW this year. Falling battery prices, favorable economics when deployed with solar, and value-adders like grid flexibility and resilience services are driving this growth, said EIA.
Three states comprise more than 52% of the 49 GW of solar + storage expected to come online in the next two years. California leads the way with 11 GW, followed by Texas with 10 GW, and New York with 4 GW.
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I realize that in writing stories like this, with limited time (and perhaps deadlines), the stories cannot always be exhaustive. However, the information that is here does not impress me.
How much of this renewable capacity is going to operate on demand?
Even the predicted 10 GW of storage does not inspire me. At best, these will probably operate 4 hours a day. Given “well-to-wheel” losses, maintenance downtime, and times when they will not be economic, this is not really a lot of power to speak of, just comparatively more than in the past.
I hope this publication will diversify and have more stories about storage options other than electric batteries.