Amperon, a provider of energy forecasting solutions, announced the launch of its probabilistic Asset Solar and Wind Short-Term Forecasts to model electricity generation probabilities.
As solar and wind penetration increases and power markets face heightened volatility, energy companies are seeking more sophisticated ways to quantify generation uncertainty. Traditional deterministic forecasts typically provide a single expected generation value. While useful, these models often fail to capture the full range of variability that can impact bidding, scheduling, and overall profitability. Amperon’s new tool is designed to close this gap by providing a range of likely generation outcomes.
The tool provides hourly and sub-hourly visibility up to 15 days ahead. It delivers 19 percentile bands, ranging from P5 through P95, via API. This allows renewable energy operators and independent power producers to better manage market exposure. For example, a producer bidding into the day-ahead market can use the data to identify intervals where weather uncertainty increases the risk of underperformance and adjust bids accordingly.
Utilities and gentailers can also use the probabilistic data for net load planning and supply stack decisions. By understanding the probability of various outcomes, these entities can optimize renewable portfolios and maintain grid reliability more effectively.
The launch follows Amperon’s expansion of its grid mid-term forecasts into Europe and the U.S. The company said it is also seeing momentum in Latin America, where rapid renewable capacity growth is driving demand for shorter-interval, risk-aware asset-level forecasts.
“Our focus at Amperon is simple: keep pushing forecasting forward so customers have the insight they need to make smarter decisions,” said Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon. “We are giving customers a clearer view of uncertainty and more confidence in how they plan, bid, and operate.”
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