Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Texas-based energy analysis firm Enverus, said it expects residential solar installations to reach 47% of U.S. households by 2050. The forecast comes from its latest solar and storage report.
Furthermore, the report estimates that that most residential solar installations will be paired with storage in the fastest growing markets, such as Texas and Florida, by 2032. Markets with existing high penetration of solar, such as California and Arizona, are expected to incorporate more storage starting in 2026 with the advent of a net billing tariff.
EIR said the report comes from its analysis forecasting solar savings and hourly impacts on load. It assessed key regions that are poised for significant grid offset through behind the meter (BTM) solar generation.
Increasing retail power prices will motivate BTM solar and storage, the report said. Some analysts predict that retail prices will rise an average of 19% by 2028 due to sharp increases in demand. EIR said BTM solar paired with storage will enable households to shift consumption to off-peak hours and that this combination’s penetration will greatly impact ISO resources.
“Our forecast suggests significant changes in power demand for CAISO, ERCOT, SE and NYISO, with evening peaks shifting later as storage systems become active after solar production hours,” said Kevin Kang, analyst at EIR, in a statement. “We also anticipate increased investment in both utility-scale and residential storage solutions to address the impact of growing residential solar adoption.”
According to the report, residential solar and storage systems become more widespread, power markets will experience greater volatility, driving requirements for increased grid storage capacity.
“As residential solar and storage costs continue to decline, coupled with anticipated increases in retail power prices due to state renewable targets, the economic appeal of residential solar and storage continues to grow,” Kang said.
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