Having predicted the growth of what could eventually be a $2.6 trillion electric vehicle market, U.K.-based market research company IDTechEx has already called time on plug-in hybrid models.
Cynics have long anticipated the world’s traditional carmakers will roll out incremental innovations to keep sales buoyant during the transition to full electromobility, and the findings of the EVs 2020-2030 report published by the Cambridge-based analysts would appear to bear out that concern.
According to IDTechEx, plug-in hybrids – cars which switch to being gas-driven once their battery runs out of charge – offer the worst of both worlds with drivers reporting range anxiety thanks to a small battery together with a smaller-than-usual fuel tank. The latter is becoming more of a problem for drivers, according to the study, thanks to the number of gas stations starting to decline in the U.K. in tandem with the rise in EV charging points.
Plug in, drop out
Brands including Mini and its BMW parent, Volkswagen marques Skoda and Porsche, Geely-owned Volvo and German manufacturer Mercedes all offer plug-in hybrid EVs but the report’s authors say such PHEVs have nothing like the waiting lists enjoyed by the pure electric rivals which are already killing their market share.
PHEVs will be extinct by 2030, according to the IDTechEx publication, and lead author Peter Harrop said: “Well-funded start-ups go straight to pure electric. [The] Tesla Roadster will have 1,000km range, matching gasoline: it will then become commonplace. Those buying internal combustion vehicles hope [proposed] city and country bans [on such vehicles] will not apply to hybrids. However, they face increasing range anxiety from the number of gas stations plummeting – Experian Catalyst reports a drop of 35% in U.K. gasoline stations since the year 2000 – whilst charging stations increase. They [also] have financial anxiety from dropping resale values.
“There is absolutely nothing to reverse dropping market share for plug-in hybrids, leading to decline in sales numbers. Indeed, with new inputs, we have just revised our forecasts down to show plug-in car sales at zero in 2030. Technologically they are becalmed while pure electric is evolving fast – from camper mode to solar versions that never plug in.”
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: firstname.lastname@example.org.
They are right and might be conservative. By then only a few specialized cases of a battery dominated series hybrid will be left.
In 2030 battery prices will be $50/kwh thus cheaper than ICEs so most BEVs will have 125-250 mile range with 10-12 minute charging and DC chargers everywhere making hybrids just overcomplicated , too expensive to sell.
Fact is these EVs, charger build out will be here in just 4 yrs means in 2025 one will have a hard time justifying buying hybrids or ICEs losing 50% of value rolling off the showroom floor.
They’ll have to discount them so much they won’t be profitable to make, thus killing off ICEs, hybrids.
Though there will be battery hybrids that use say a 80 mile lithium pack and have a swappable metal/air battery REx giving 300-1k mile
At 4kwh/lb, they just don’t weigh much so easy to swap. These will also supply apartments, semis, businesses that can’t make their own green power will just roll one home from the corner store after swapping for a charged one.
This can be done today if they give up charging for reforming.
I have to agree. I have a Volt. I wish I would have gone pure electric. Have only had to change the oil once, but what a hassle – and, of course, the dealership keeps bugging me to change the oil every 3,000 miles/3 months even when the engine hasn’t been used. After a year with a mostly full gas tank the engine had to run every time I drove it for 3 weeks until it burned all the old gas. That is when I found out that without gas the car goes into limp mode so you can’t even really use it as BEV. So, now I put 2-3 gallons in it which will last about a year for me.
These predictions may be correct. But there his no option available yet, including Teslas, which will give me the usual pleasure of driving EV and still dependably reach the other big city in Washington State (Seattle) without a lengthly and problematic pause to charge than my 2017 Volt.
I agree. I’ve had 3 PHEVs and 3 pure EVs. With EV range increasing to 200 to 300+ miles, the benefits of fuel and maintenance and the pure joy of driving an EV is truly superior.
By submitting this form you agree to pv magazine using your data for the purposes of publishing your comment.
Your personal data will only be disclosed or otherwise transmitted to third parties for the purposes of spam filtering or if this is necessary for technical maintenance of the website. Any other transfer to third parties will not take place unless this is justified on the basis of applicable data protection regulations or if pv magazine is legally obliged to do so.
You may revoke this consent at any time with effect for the future, in which case your personal data will be deleted immediately. Otherwise, your data will be deleted if pv magazine has processed your request or the purpose of data storage is fulfilled.
Further information on data privacy can be found in our Data Protection Policy.