New model reveals pathway for land-efficient U.S. solar expansion

McGill University researchers, publishing in Communications Earth & Environment, used deep-learning computer vision to analyze 719 solar projects across the Western U.S. The study establishes a new “land-sparing” benchmark, providing developers with precise data to balance rapid capacity expansion with conservation and land-use priorities.

February 26, 2026 Ryan Kennedy

Image: McGill University

As solar is projected to become the world’s primary renewable energy source by 2029, land competition has become a bottleneck for utility-scale developers.

By applying deep learning neural networks to high-resolution aerial imagery, a McGill University-led team, headed by Associate Professor Sarah Marie Jordaan, successfully mapped 13,272 MW of installed capacity to determine how engineering choices and site selection impact a project’s physical footprint.

The findings highlight a clear correlation between geographic irradiance and land efficiency. Projects in sunnier regions, coupled with compact system designs, yielded significantly higher energy density.

“This research creates a replicable framework to understand the land implications of rapid solar growth,” Jordaan noted. “It moves us beyond anecdotal data to a standardized way of measuring how much land we actually need to reach net-zero.”

A companion study published in Joule expanded this scope to a global scale, examining nearly 69,000 installations across 65 countries. The analysis identified a massive, untapped potential in rooftop solar.

While utility-scale, ground-mounted systems offer lower upfront CAPEX, researchers found that the cost gap between rooftop and ground-mounted systems varies significantly by region. The study suggests that targeted policy could make rooftop integration the more economical choice when land acquisition and environmental mitigation costs are factored in.

The data suggests that even under high-growth scenarios, the total global land requirement for solar to meet net-zero targets remains “negligible” if strategically managed.

By prioritizing brownfields, contaminated land, and rooftop environments, developers can mitigate the “energy sprawl” that often triggers local opposition and permitting delays.

The research underscores a shift toward integrating solar into the built environment to minimize transmission losses and infrastructure needs.

“Our results show that technology-driven increases in efficiency can more than compensate for land constraints,” the study concludes.

By leveraging these AI-driven insights, the industry is poised to evolve from reactive land acquisition to a proactive, data-centric model that protects both revenue and the environment.

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