Data from the latest Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook indicates a structural shift within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas market. Solar generation is forecast to reach 78,000 GWh in 2026, surpassing the 60,000 GWh projected for coal.
Solar and wind combined reached a record 17% of total U.S. power generation recently, and that momentum is accelerating. By the end of 2026, solar alone is expected to contribute 12% of the total electricity in Texas, while coal’s share will contract to 13%.
The rise in generation is underpinned by a significant surge in physical infrastructure, with Texas hosting approximately 40% of all new U.S. solar capacity additions in 2026.
Developers plan to install 14 GW of new utility-scale solar in Texas as part of a broader 86 GW nationwide capacity surge. Among these projects is the 837 MW Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS facility, which is slated to be the largest single PV installation to come online nationwide this year.
Texas remains a central engine for the domestic energy transition, accounting for 12.9 GW or 53% of the 24 GW of utility-scale battery storage planned for the U.S. grid in 2026. This battery surge is critical for stabilizing the grid as renewable penetration increases. Total U.S. battery capacity is now projected to hit 67 GW by early 2027, a significant jump from the 15 GW added in 2025.
The national outlook mirrors the shift seen in Texas, with solar and wind combined expected to exceed 20% of the total U.S. electricity generation mix by early 2027. Outside of the solar sector, wind additions are set to double to 11.8 GW, supported by the completion of major offshore projects like the 800 MW Vineyard Wind 1. While solar and storage dominate the 2026 pipeline, small-scale solar is also expected to contribute 8 GW of new capacity, further diversifying the decentralized grid.
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