Enphase lowers revenue guidance as U.S. residential solar stagnates

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Enphase, a leading provider of solar microinverters, delivered lower-than-expected revenues for Q2, 2022. It also offered significantly lower than expected guidance for revenues next quarter, posting an expectation of $550 million to $600 million, dramatically lower than the consensus forecast of $748 million. Following the earnings report, share prices dipped about 10%.

The Fremont, California based manufacturer has hit some choppy waters in the macro environment, as rising interest rates and stabilizing electricity prices have lowered demand for residential solar in the United States. While the company has posted strong sequential growth in Europe, slowing U.S. sales are expected to persist into next year, pulling down revenues.

U.S. residential solar is further being hampered by policy changes, particularly around reductions in compensation for net energy metering. California notably entered NEM 3.0 in April, and other states have followed suit.

ROTH Capital Partners managing director Phil Shen warned in an industry note that in addition to slowed demand, the emergence of Tesla as a residential string inverter provider may pose risk to Enphase’s market share. While Shen notes that Enphase is a superior product with a better value for total cost of ownership, customers and installers alike may be more attracted to a lower cash ticket price for the string inverters provided by Tesla. ROTH estimates that 20% to 30% of U.S. residential solar market share may go to Tesla.

Enphase posted Q2 revenues of $711 million, falling short of the consensus $722 million. It delivered 2.1 GWdc of microinverters and 82 MWh of energy storage. Earnings per share reached $1.47, coming in above the consensus of $1.25. ROTH lowered its 12-month price target from $250 to $185 and maintained its buy rating. The stock stands at $150 per share at time of writing.

The company also authorized a $1 billion stock repurchase program, a common tactic for businesses that may be looking to stem a declining share price and believe their company is undervalued in the market.

As demand for U.S.-made components has increased under the regulatory environment created by the Inflation Reduction Act, Enphase has begun making contract manufacturing partnerships. Contract manufacturer Flex is producing IQ8 microinverters in Columbia, South Carolina. It recently was visited by President Joe Biden to commemorate the launch of the site. It also began a new contract manufacturing operation with Foxconn in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin. The two facilities shipped about 50,000 microinverters in Q2. Enphase said it is on track to begin shipments from a third contract manufacturer in Q3 2023.

Enphase U.S. manufacturing footprint will total $60 million in capital investment, create 1,800 direct jobs, and produce 18 million microinverters per year.

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