From pv magazine Germany
PV and wind power are the most important way to reduce emissions in the electricity sector, the IEA said in its new “World Energy Outlook 2022” report. Their share of electricity generation will increase from 10% in 2021 to 40% in 2030, reaching 70% in 2050, according to the agency.
Solar provided more than 3% of global electricity generation in 2021. Annual capacity addition reached 150 GW, making 2021 another record year. Solar panel prices have fallen by 80% over the past decade, thanks to economies of scale and continuous innovation throughout the supply chain. As a result, PV has become the most affordable power generation technology in many parts of the world. The IEA expects annual growth to more than quadruple to 650 GW in 2030.
By then, annual solar and wind power installations in the United States will increase two and a half times from today’s levels, thanks in part to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). New targets are also driving the massive build-up of clean energy in China, with the country’s coal and oil consumption peaking before the end of this decade. Accelerated renewable energy deployment and efficiency improvements in the European Union mean that EU demand for gas and oil will fall by 20% and coal consumption by 50% over the course of this decade, according to the report.
The average selling price of solar panels rose for the first time in 2021 – by around 20% from 2020 – due to higher freight and commodity prices, particularly for polysilicon. While module prices remained at high levels in the first half of 2022, the IEA said that continuous innovations, further improvements to materials, and energy efficiency will lead to further cost reductions.
The energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could accelerate the transition to a more sustainable energy system, according to the IEA. Although the use of fossil fuels will peak in this decade, it will then decline in the long term. The IEA forecasts that more than $2 trillion will be invested every year in climate-neutral technologies by 2030, through programs like the IRA, REPower EU, and others in Japan, South Korea, and China. This corresponds to an increase of more than 50% compared to today. However, that would still fall short of 1.5-degree target, which would require a $4 trillion investment by 2030.
“The energy markets and energy policies have been changed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and not just temporarily, but for the coming decades,” said Fatih Birol, director-general of the IEA. “Even with today’s political framework, the energy world is changing dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this an historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system.”
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As usual IEA will DO & SAY ANYTHING TO ENSURE IT’S PATRONS… THE POLLUTERS.. FOSSIL & NUCLEAR (SPECIALLY IN THE FUTURE) INDUSTRUES CONTINUE ON WITH .. .. BUSINESS AS USUAL…
THE WORLD NEEDS 5TW/yr for the next 30 Years.. say 2050 to Install a 150TW PV-AV (AgriVoltaics) Based ZERO POLLUTION SYSTEM TO MEET ALL ITS ENERGY NEEDS (not just it’s EXISTING Electricity using Energy Sectors) .. In addition… Conversion of Direct/Indirect use of Fossil Fuel Facilities & Equipment will also be required….
THE ABOVE REQUIRES $400 Trillion by 2050 or $13+ Trillion/yr.. not these “Mickey Mouse” IEA Projections of $2Trillion/yr THAT DOOM MANKIND & EARTH to a Miserable & Polluted Earth…
… all this.. so THE POLLUTERS.. IEA’s PATRONS.. CONTONUE WITH THEIR “KLING FIELDS” GLOBALLY…!!!
Why does pvmagazine NOT QUESTION THIS & RAISE THE FLAG.. OR IT TOO IS WORKING UNDER THE UMBRELLA OF.. THE POLLUTERS.. LIKE IEA .
if you go to Ramez Naam’s web site, you’ll see a great blog post about “Solar’s Future Is Insanely Cheap”. There he points out how ludicrous the IEA’s solar projections have been in the past (e.g., by 2020, the cost of solar was what the IEA had predicted would take between 7 and 100 years to achieve – depending on their forecasts from 2011 on).
It’s a great read and makes you confident that the “650 GW” a year by 2030, will be more like 1.2TW+, especially considering that global module capacity is likely to be 600 Gw a year by the end of 2023, and rising considerably every year.
Solar is going to get ultra cheap very soon (a prediction by professor Martin Green who just won the Millennium Prize and has been pretty much the leading solar expert of the last 50 years). With the demand soaring, supply soaring, the Solar learning Curve of 25% staying consistent, and technological innovation being driven by way more $ than ever before, that figure of 1.2 TW instals
a year could well be conservative. too. Hopefully!