While popular science fiction has set high the expectations of what the future of transportation will look like, BloombergNEF (BNEF) has painted a picture of how the auto industry will evolve in its latest Long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook report.
In the report, BNEF outlines that electric vehicles (EVs) will hit 10% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025, with that number rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040. According to the study, EVs currently make up 3% of global car sales.
Beyond just new sales, EVs are predicted to represent 31% of all cars on the road in 2040, making up 67% of municipal buses, 47% of two-wheeled vehicles (scooters, mopeds, motorcycles and so on) and 24% of light commercial vehicles. Compare this to 2020, where EVs make up 33% of municipal buses, 30% of two-wheeled vehicles and 2% of light commercial vehicles.
In terms of gross vehicles usage, BNEF predicts that 500 million passenger EVs will be on the road globally by 2040, compared to a total passenger vehicle fleet of 1.6 billion. Unfortunately, there will still be more miles driven globally by internal combustion passenger vehicles than EVs.
Sales and price parity
The ramp in EV adoption will be initially led by reaching price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles. This will begin when large vehicles hit this point in Europe, which is expected to happen in 2022 and will end with small cars making the achievement in India and Japan around 2030.
While this parity takes a global perspective, it will be hard-driven by the European and Chinese markets, which are expected to represent 72% of all passenger EV sales in 2030. By 2030, China and Europe are expected to achieve the feat of 50% of all cars on the road being EVs.
This will be because of the other head of EV adoption, policy support, taking the form of European vehicle CO2 regulations and China’s EV credit system, fuel economy regulations and city policies restricting new internal combustion vehicle sales.
The rest of the pack
As for the United States, the country will be slower to reach the levels of adoption that are expected to come to Europe and China, due to limited projections of charging infrastructure availability. The U.S. does have one factor working in its favor to make a quick catchup possible by the end of the 2030s, according to BNEF: nearly 60% of U.S. households have two or more cars – and many have the ability to install home charging.
On a similar adoption rate projection to the United States comes South Korea. Like Europe and China, the South Korean adoption timeline is predicated upon strong government policy support, yet the country will also get a push from its domestic auto and battery manufacturers.
The report also outlines that there will be 550 EV models available from global auto manufacturers by 2022. Despite this prediction, Japan, home to a bevy of international vehicle manufacturers that already include a number of EVs, is predicted not to take off until 2025. The report states that this is when Japanese automakers launch more EV options, although the country home to Honda, Toyota, Mazda and Subaru still lags behind in EV adoption.
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Plug in Hybrid cars would be great for appartment dwellers that can not charge at home but could charge at work or charging stations a Target or WalMart and for cross country trips where charging stations are few and far apart. I can see a two car home having one plug in hybrid large touring car and one smaller all electric EV for commuting with both being able to be pluged in to a solar powered home with battery back up systems. We replace are automobiles on an average of every 7 years so betwean Hybrid and EV we could be 70% less dependent on fossil fuel by 2030 if the automobile makers would just build them. I drive a Buick La Crosse for the comfort and size but they did not offer a large “plug in” Hybrid. The E-assist models were not a plug in and only increased the milage by 4 miles per gallon with a 4 cyclender gutless engine and a small motor attatched that would add power, when fully charged, going to 4 lead acid batteries. About the same as the smaller engine would get anyway. I test drove the Buick la Cross and tryed to merge on the freeway with the e-assist but because the batteries were low from not being charged on the short test drives, it did not assist at all. The only GM hybrid was the Volt and it had very small batteries and the Chevy Spark EV only had an 80 mile range. They are comming out with many newer EV cars, SUVs and truck for 2022 but with 2 Buck Gasoline, the price will be not woth it to consumers The only long range full size EV sedan made in the USA for model year 2020 is the Model S and Model X Teslas priced over $80,000.00.
I believe that people are going to make the switch much faster than generally predicted. If people generally buy a new car every 7 years, why would anyone buy anything else than an electric car. They are already much cheaper now than an average car. (Extremely little maintenance costs etc.)
I drive a Volt. Why? Because the average peron only drives 85 kilometers a day anyway. I drive a lot and yet most of my driving (85% is on electric and I often go for weeks with no gas consumed.)
People don;t ask where they will get their gas in the future as gas stations start to close down as more and more people buy an electric car. This is rarely discussed and yet it is a reasonable assumption. Who in their right mind would build a gas station today or even repair or upgrade one knowing that it has little future.
I plan on keeping my 2 ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles. Currently, me and my wife take several vacations each year and often our trips go over the current range of most EV’s as our trips are often over 600 miles. Until the charging time goes below 5 mins, I can’t see why I would ever purchase an EV. Most ICE vehicles on the road today, can achieve 200,000 miles before being replaced, so the new ICE vehicles being built today, will be on the road for another 10-15 years. I hope the domestic car companies keep building some type of ICE vehicle, as their quality has made the driving of these vehicles a sheer enjoyment to their customers. I currently drive a GM Chevy Equinox and a Chrysler Grand Caravan. Looking forward to future ICE vehicles from these manufactures, and if they decide not to make them, I will purchase a manufacturer that provides them.
@Edward, country by country, plug-in hybrid sales have decreased substantially as full battery EV’s have increased greatly. Bloomberg has their dates completely wrong, as they have historically over the last 8 years. State of Washington will no longer register ICE cars after 2030, many states soon to follow. Used car prices on ICE cars is crashing now so rapidly that the leasing companies have to revise residual values, making leasing ICE cars for the future consumer much higher. The worldwide trends show people moving towards full battery EV’s to be quite rapid. Throw into this legislation coming in China and India of no more ICE sales after 2030. China and India are 70% of world car sales. GM, Ford and others will go belly up if they lose China and India market. 2030 is 10 years before Bloomberg’s 2040 prediction. My prediction is 25% EV sales by 2025, 60% to 80% by 2030 in the USA. Many countries will be 100% by 2030 thanks to legislation. The dominant car makers of 2030 and beyond will be large several Chinese makers such as BYD and US/Chinese maker such as Tesla, Germany’s VW.
Unless appartment garages or carports come with a locked EV charger billed to the tenants electrical bill they will not be able to charge there cars at night. There is no such thing a a FREE LUNCH. Replacing gasoline with electricity will take just as much energy but where will that energy come from? Much of the electrical grid is already overloaded and to add 150% more load to charge all of these cars is going to take a big infrastructure change. it took 30 years to go from horse and buggy to ICE vehicles accross our country. Saying we will go from ICE to Electric in just 10 years would take a realy big investment here in the USA. Go to third world countries or rural areas that do not have reliable electrical power will take a lot longer. That is why I recomended an EV vehicle with a small efficient ICE in the boot so you could “fill up” with petrol if the electrical infrastucture has not caught up. A 10,000 watt generator is only $700.00 and could be transfered from vehicle to vehicle as needed for rural EV owners or appartment owners that do not have access to a charging receptical. Just as all new Residential homes in California must now come with Solar panels, Requirements for EV outlets could be as simple as adding it to the National Electrical Code just as 220 volt 30 amp dryer recepticals are required for laundry for all new construction since 1958. Just remember how powerfull the fossil fuel industry is and how politicians in Washington DC today do not want to spend the money replacing that industry.
Solutions range from plug-in hybrids to fully electric vehicles with lithium ion batteries or other materials
Although the first automobiles were electric, the last century was the century of the internal combustion engine. Today transport is equal to oil. The first (1973) and the second oil crisis (1979) meant the displacement of oil in the generation of electricity. The third must involve its displacement from road transport, a process that, like the precedent of electricity generation, will take several decades, and there will be a long period of coexistence.
A sustainable transport policy should promote the reduction of demand, non-motorized transport and public and rail transport, both for passengers and goods and car sharing, as well as improving the efficiency of vehicles. But as there are already some 800 million vehicles and the aspiration to individual motorized mobility is deeply ingrained, despite its many externalities and costs of all kinds, and each year there will be more due to the development of China and India, among other countries. (In 2030 there will be more than 1,500 million and by 2050, if foreseeable trends continue, 3,000 million vehicles will circulate), it is necessary to provide a viable and complementary solution to those mentioned, and that is the electric car connected to the network, provided that most of the electricity comes from renewable energies, and especially wind power, for cost and resource reasons, and even in the future also from fossil fuels, when CO2 capture and storage technologies are developed. It goes without saying that such capture and storage technologies can only be implemented in large thermoelectric plants, and they are not viable and will not be viable in the millions of vehicles.
Only the electrification of road transport will make it possible to take advantage of the decarbonisation of electricity generation. The other alternatives, given the foreseeable and enormous growth of the vehicle fleet in the coming decades, after overcoming the current crisis, lead to a dead
The EVan is here to stay; it is cheaper to make for the manufacturer, more economic to operate, much cleaner and quieter, and can be charged in about 15 minutes in about 2-3 years’ time. Already the very first Beta versions of battery’s that can be charged in 5 minutes have been delivered to prospective manufacturers. Then you just go into a normal charge station and, like the petrol you take on board, you are on your way again. No smells, no dirt, no pollution and above all no more particulates to harm our children. Must be worth it, no?
A very good insight.
I personally welcome to EVs because they are eco-friendly. Being made without an exhaust system and have zero emissions, EVs will help to reduce air pollution and greenhouse effects. If I ride an electric car, it will cost much lower than the engine car.
But the main pain points to me for EV is its range. A full tank fuel car can go up to 300 miles while EVs are a range of 60 to 100 miles. Although the EV range is continuously increasing, so I am sure one day EV can go over than fuel car. The price of EV should be less expensive, otherwise, it will be beyond our afford.
You apparently have not done your research on ICE cars and EVs from the manufacturing process to end of life. The EV leave as much of a carbon footprint and sometimes even bigger. You have to mine 750 tons of brine rich ore to yield 1 ton of usable lithium. This is about people getting rich off of the minerals. They don’t care about the environment.
The car itself may be eco friendly but birth to grave, and charging infrastructure included, they are not. It’s a wash at best.
I predict that electric vehicles only will use a lot of electricity and there won’t be enough electricity to go around so it will become much more expensive than gas. If we have now brownouts and blackouts I’ll hate to see the future trying to cope with so much electricity.
My answer is that each car should have multiple sources of energy like solar on the hood, doors, and roof, gasoline, electricity, and perhaps liquid gas, all of this will work and give us alternatives when one of these options are scarce or expensive on most cars and large vehicles
@Donald : You are correct, if we do not put our own solar panels on businesses and homes. Tesla has an “add on” to it’s Model 3 that lets you put extra electricity into your car battery just like it’s power wall and can let you draw from it as needed for your home if there is a brown out or black out. The battery in the model 3 is equivilant to 2 power walls with spare capacity to get you another 50 miles of driving if needed. other car companies will have similar capabilities on their cars and solar farms, built over large parking lots could offer additional charging capability in the price of the parking fee while you are at work or at the shopping mall. One car company even has inductive charging that lets you park your care over a “charging plate”, then, the car talks to the charger and takes a charge from that plate when the time is correct to do so and the grid has the excess power. No power cord, smart apps for paying fees for the energy and lots of solar available durring the day for inductive charging would be one answer to balance the loads and not overwelm the power grid.
This topic shows one of the problems with government. They believe they must legislate fuel efficiency (ie C.A.F.E. standards in U.S.) because businesses wouldn’t improve without legislation forced on them. NOT TRUE! Business is dog eat dog. If people want cheaper operating cost, that will be the cue for business. Everyone including government thought they were so smart in seeing an energy crisis and forcing business to squeeze every MPG out of a vehicle that would always run on hydrocarbons. Lo and behold! We can run our vehicles off electricity efficiently and disrupt the whole industry just as blacksmiths were disrupted after the automobile was invented. Just wait til car wheels don’t have to be in contact with the tarmac and see what that disrupts!
62% of new cars sold in Norway is now El. cars. Mostly due to plenty of clean and cheap el. power and reduced taxes. The piston engines are dying in Germany. Britain bans fossil cars in 9 years. However.. there are big problems ahead. Enormeus mines are needed to extract and wash out just some tons of the rare metal needed to produce all these batteries. Which countries want these mines? Not Norway for sure. We just want to import cars. The huge environmental problems can be exported. Next the power. If just EU had a similar percentage of el. cars? Where will all this energy to charge the cars come from?? Not to mention China, India and USA. No one are able to give the answer at the moment.
Was very good information thank you for sharing
We need charging stations. Primarily near theaters so people can see a play while their car is charging and be able to leave when the play is over (maybe WICKED – that’s 3 hours long). There should be an overhaul of the highways for EVs.
GM spent $1 billion on fuel-cell automobile development using hydrogen and oxygen from sea water. With rising sea levels, there is no lack of sea water and the process to separate the components of water is DC electricity. At 2 cents per kWh being the going cost for solar, making hydrogen could be even cheaper than making batteries and replacing them every 7 to 10 years. Filling a car with hydrogen is like filling a vehicle with LP gas.
nice information and thank you
I believe EVs are just bubble. This battery technology is not sustainable. The reason of doubt on Evs success are many. 1.) Range 2.) Charging time 3.) Space for charging station.4) Parking place at home 5.) Power tarrif. 6.) The cost of EVs. The better technology I can see is hybrid vehicle, hydrogen fuel cell, or hydrogen internal combustion engine.
You are a wise man. Yes the next automobile technology must provide the end user with comfort, value, and reliability. Currently the EV has not proven any of these 3 metrics to the end user. One of the World’s Best and Wisest automakers, Toyota Motors currently has not went “ALL IN” with the EV. They are seeing the same thing you and I are seeing. The World market has been talking about EV’s for the last 10 years yet they still haven’t gained a strong foothold. Once the EV market starts to take off they will be competing for NMC or nickel, manganese and cobalt, three elements that are vital ingredients in the most common of today’s EV batteries. I do believe we are in the initial stages of an automotive technology revolution, but the energy source that supplies the drive unit will look much different, than what the initial guinea pigs are purchasing today. The folks that are purchasing the EV’s today, will regretfully wish they waited (5) more years as they will be trying to sell vehicles that no-one will want to re-purchase.
True! Intelligent hybridation is the answer … at least in the mid-term (say approx. 10-15 years)
Step one) Install solar panels or a Solar Roof, on your home, that can power your home and charge your car, on a sunny day or cloudy day. That requires a system that is 4 times bigger than currently allowed by most utilities. (Utilities and energy companies hate this.)
Step two) Buy an electric car that you can charge off an induction plate, on the garage floor, so no manual plug in is required, but have one available for “off site” charging and make sure the EV car, you buy, has a reasonably priced “replacment battery”. (That has not been developed yet)
I think the biggest and earliest users and switch to EV’s will be small fleets. Your post office, your town vehicles, college campus vehicles, local delivery, etc. is where it makes the most immediate need and sense.
These vehicles hardly drive more than 100 miles a day, and sit overnight. By going EV, the enterprise would save on gas, oil changes, other maintenance, and all that entails.
I look for the fleet use of cars and trucks to boom in the next few years/decade. Imagine how much NYC or any other city or town would save if their fleet was electric.
all garbage talk about electric cars !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love my Camry with 4 cyl. gas saving engine !
I suppose I am old and intransigent but I cannot for the life of me understand why hydrogen is not the preferred fuel source for the future. A breakthrough in distilling hydrogen from water will destroy the electric model. No mining required, unlimited water supplies, minor technological changes to current ICE engines required, no exhaust particles, no waste disposal issues of dangerous minerals from batteries.
I cannot see that current favoured production techniques, solar and wind, for electricity can cope with the projected demand. Inevitably it will require more oil, gas or nuclear production. How long before there is uproar about disposal of wind farms which blight our countryside
I read your article it is very informative for me. I hope I will find more articles in the future.
hey this article for me was soo informative and nice to that deep research on cars i hope too see this type of articles thank you
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