Business intelligence firm IHS Markit’s solar forecast for this year (its 2020 Global Photovoltaic Demand Forecast) predicts a 14% rise in the amount of new solar generation capacity expected this year compared to last year’s results, with IHS predicting that 142 GW of new solar will be rolled out in 2020.
However, a glance at the individual market expectations indicates continuing uncertainty in the world’s biggest solar market, a dramatic slowdown after an impressive 2019 in Europe and a resumption of activity in India which will nevertheless leave the populous nation a mountain to climb to hit its 2022 solar ambition.
Florida, North Carolina and New York join the fray
The U.S. will remain the world’s second biggest solar market this year, according to IHS, with Florida, North Carolina and New York joining the list of key drivers cited by the analyst — behind perennial solar leader California and recent contender Texas.
China concern, European slowdown, India rolls on
While solar installations outside China last year are expected to have grown by as much as 53%, IHS Markit is confident enough to predict only continued “double digit growth” inside China this year. Meanwhile, the report predicted the uncertainty dogging the world’s biggest solar market is likely to continue until the details of the next five-year plan are made public next year.
Noting Europe almost doubled the amount of new solar capacity installed last year, compared to 2018, IHS Markit expects only a 5% year-on-year rise this time around, with the region expected to deploy more than 24 GW of new capacity. Of that figure, around 63% will be accounted for by Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Ukraine.
After what the market research firm described as a “flat” 2019 for new solar in India – also thanks to policy uncertainty and the impact of protectionist solar import duties – IHS Markit foresees more than 14 GW of new generation capacity will be deployed this year. That sort of return, propelled by cheaper modules and a huge project pipeline, would take India past 46 GW of solar capacity but still leave it well short of its 100 GW aim for 2022.
Although the top ten solar markets will contribute 73% of the world’s new solar capacity this year, according to IHS, new markets will emerge in Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East and “more than 43” nations – will boast more than a gigawatt of installed solar capacity in 12 months’ time.
Edurne Zoco, director of clean technology and renewables at IHS, said in the press release: “If the 2010s were the decade of technology innovation, steep cost reductions, large subsidies and dominance by a few markets, then 2020 marks the decade of emerging unsubsidized solar, diversification and expansion of solar installation demand across the globe, new corporate entry players and increasing competitiveness versus conventional energy sources.”
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I still very much doubt we’re seeing the big picture, of the numbers, at the end of last year, December, China installed 12 GW, enough to give 12 million households a kilowatt, if each household has 5 people, that’s 60 million people. 142 GW, is enough to give 142 million households a kilowatt, most of 12 hours a day, even if those households have only an average of 3 people in them, that’s a kilowatt for 426 million people. 1 in 15 people, on Earth, in 1 year, will have a kilowatt more energy available to them, at this time, solar power is only just the cheapest electricity, the precedent, is halving in price every 5 years, halving in price every 3 years in the last decade.
If solar energy is half of the price per kWh, of carbon dioxide emissions based power in 2023, we will be installing at least 1.42 TW per year in 2023, enough for over a 3 billion people, to have a kilowatt, available to them. That’s nearly half of the world’s population, then what happens in the next 3 years in 2026, solar could be 1/4 of the price of carbon dioxide emissions based power, so we’d probably see 14.2 TW installed, enough for 30 billion people to have a kilowatt. Now we’re getting into surplus energy, for steel and aluminium production, liquid hydrogen fuel production, for aircraft fuel, I know, I know, hydrogen fuel isn’t perfectly efficient. So what, hydrocarbon fuel isn’t either, exploding fuel at 20% or less efficiency, isn’t better than turning water, into fuel, with oxygen as waste, at the same sort of efficiency, we may not be used to it, but BHP, has committed to going liquid natural gas, a cryogenic fuel, for its mineral shipping.
I’m just saying, that the Green New Deal, isn’t going to cost anything, it’s going to be hugely profitable, cheaper power, transportation and food (high rise agriculture (LED hydroponic,)) until the very low maintenance of transistorised power, electric vehicles and robotic, software food production. Brings us to market saturation, high unemployment, the Grand Depression, but energy, transportation and food will be cheap, so it will be easy for governments to institute, the basic minimum income. With the capital that an industrial revolution, will put into their coffers, plus public works projects, like magnetic levitation railway projects. To soak up excess energy, resources, workforce availability and keep capital flowing throughout the global economy, with so many mechanics, power, transportation and agriculture workers unemployed, since electric vehicles, need 1/10th of the maintenance, driverless vehicles, no energy mining jobs, energy transportation jobs. Food production, transportation jobs gone, that’s the big picture, by my reading, of the figures and trends.
Great post! Thanks for sharing the knowledge and keep up the good work.
Solar energy plays a important role in every field like farms, home and business etc. apart from this it has a great role in long-term in savings your bills!! It’s a great option to shift to the solar energy system, great that the world is stepping towards it.
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