At RE+ in Las Vegas, one of the dominant themes was pricing across the solar supply chain. Numbers were being shared that sounded almost too good to be true and, in many cases, were. Some offers circulating were roughly half the cost of more realistic market pricing, while others reflected the higher expense of incorporating greater levels of domestic content. That’s not a small difference. It’s a gap that can decide whether a project pencils out or falls apart.
The reality is that these ultra-low price points aren’t sustainable without heavy support from the Inflation Reduction Act’s Section 45X advanced manufacturing tax credits. And come Jan. 1, 2026, compliance with Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions will be mandatory — making it even harder to deliver numbers that look appealing on a slide but collapse under the realities of compliance and delivery.
Pricing is only part of the story
Even if the numbers hold on paper, another challenge remains: Can suppliers actually deliver?
Building a solar manufacturing facility in the United States is far more complex than building in other countries. Permitting takes longer, public scrutiny is greater and, in many cases, the U.S. workforce is still developing the highly specialized skills required for high-volume solar manufacturing. These realities affect both cost and timing. At ES Foundry, we selected an existing building already rooted in the community. By repurposing space that was familiar to local stakeholders, we reduced permitting hurdles, reduced concerns about the unknown and signaled that we were committed to building alongside — not apart from — the community.
That’s why track record is critical. Announcing a multi-gigawatt factory is one thing; producing consistent, high-quality output is another. Developers, investors and offtakers should be asking how far along suppliers really are — and whether actual production matches press release announcements.
Questions that matter
Rather than focusing only on the lowest headline number, the industry should be asking whether the quoted price will hold as Section 45X incentives phase out and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) compliance costs are factored in. The industry is beginning to recognize that not all U.S. manufacturers qualify for the 45X incentive, and that the ability to sustain low prices without this support is becoming a critical measure of viability. It’s also important to consider whether the supplier has a proven track record of delivering projects at scale and to look closely at how actual production compares to the volumes announced in press releases.
Finally, buyers should examine what contractual protections are in place if pricing shifts or compliance standards change, ensuring that projects remain both viable and bankable.
Balanced approach
The U.S. solar industry has a historic opportunity to build a competitive and resilient domestic supply chain, but chasing unsustainable pricing puts projects, investors and credibility at risk.
Realism doesn’t mean pessimism. It means acknowledging that higher levels of domestic content carry a premium, and that suppliers with real operating track records are worth more than those with just a press release.
If we commit to asking the right questions and structuring deals around numbers that reflect today’s realities, we’ll build projects and partnerships that stand the test of time.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
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