Fossil retirements continue, but pace slows and may reverse

EIA data shows that since 2003, U.S. fossil fuel plants have retired more capacity than they’ve been built. That trend is slowing, and early signs suggest it could reverse.

August 20, 2025 John Fitzgerald Weaver

Image: WIkimedia Commons

In 2003, the United States fossil fuel fleet reached its peak generating capacity. Since then, more capacity has retired than has come online. At the same time, fossil plants are running fewer hours each year, while wind and solar have steadily taken on a greater share of generation, and are lowering emissions.

Even with solar projected to make up 93% of new capacity in 2025, and interconnection queues dominated by solar and storage, the country may be entering a new fossil chapter.

Image: Data Source – EIA 860M, new, retired, and net cumulative capacity

Data from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 860M report tracks the nation’s generating fleet, including new additions, recent retirements, and scheduled retirements.

The chart above shows new fossil capacity, retirements, along with the cumulative net effect. Every year since 2012 has been net negative. In fact, from 2012 through 2024, the U.S. averaged more than 16 GW of retirements annually, totaling more than 215 GW.

But as shown in the chart below, the net pace of retirements is slowing. Early data suggests that in 2028, the U.S. could add net fossil capacity for the first time in nearly two decades. This shift is tied to recent federal actions by the current political regime propping up fossil plants and to a surge in new gas projects built to power data centers.

Image: Data Source – EIA 860M, New fossil capacity minus retired annually

From 2002 through 2014, fossil fuels supplied between 67% and 71% of U.S. electricity, peaking at 71% in 2007 and 2008. During that period, nuclear, hydro, and some wind filled out the rest of the mix.

The decline of fossil generation since 2014 is the direct result of wind, solar, and storage taking an increasing share of the grid. While total U.S. electricity consumption increased by 6.7% from 2015 through 2024, according to the EIA’s Electric Power Monthly, fossil generation dropped 7.3%. Fossil fuels fell from 66.6% of the power mix in 2015 to 57.9% in 2024.

In March 2024, for the first time, more than half of U.S. electricity came from non-fossil sources.

Looking forward, clean energy is poised to accelerate. The U.S. installed nearly 50 GW of renewable capacity in 2024, and more than 150 GW is expected from 2025 through 2027. The pairing of solar and batteries at scale is already reshaping California’s grid, demonstrating how quickly the world’s fourth-largest economy is moving away from fossil power. Together, these trends will not just continue to displace fossil generation, but accelerate its decline.

Fossils may win a battle in 2028, but they’re still losing the war.

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