Throttling solar incentives could increase energy bills for people and businesses across the United States and result in 173 TWh less energy production by 2030, according to an analysis released by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), America’s solar industry is under threat.
Unless Congress makes changes to the bill, SEIA said America could face $286 billion in lost investment, 330,000 fewer jobs, and 331 factories will be closed or canceled.
(Read: Data center boom may transfer electricity costs to ratepayers)
“If the U.S. fails to build out sufficient solar capacity, it will likely face energy capacity shortages within the next several years,” SEIA said.
Of the 330,000 jobs at risk, SEIA said 94,000 are in manufacturing, 236,000 are in construction, development, distribution, operations and maintenance, among others. At the state level, SEIA said 35,700 jobs are at risk in California, followed by 34,100 jobs in Texas, 21,800 in Florida and 13,900 in Illinois.
Additionally, provisions targeting residential rooftop solar could cost 62,000 jobs this year and almost 200,000 jobs in 2026, SEIA said.
“Modifications that inhibit our ability to deploy new energy production risk sparking an energy crisis,” said a letter signed by 21 House Republicans. “Such repeals would increase utility bills the very next day.”
SEIA’s analysis found that Trump Country would fare the worst if the clean energy incentives are repealed.
SEIA noted that no other energy generation technology is ready to step in to power AI data centers, which use massive amounts of energy. A repeal could cost 173 TWh in generation, which SEIA said is about as much electricity as Pennsylvania and Nevada used in 2023 combined.
Solar and storage are expected to make up 73% of capacity additions from 2025 to 2030, according to SEIA.
According to SEIA:
- Clean Energy Buyers Association: 48E and 48Y repeal would lead to a national average 7% electricity price increase for households, and a 10% increase for businesses in 2026
- Resources for the Future: Regional electricity price increases reach up to $300 to $400 per year in the upper Plains states
- Edison Electric Institute: In Texas, repeal of federal credits and funding would increase average annual household energy costs (electricity and fuel) by over $90 per year in 2030, and over $370 per year in 2035
- Brattle Group: By 2035, loss of tax credits would result in $51 billion per year of additional customer electricity costs, across all customer classes
SEIA is urging the industry to contact their representatives to urge revisions to the legislation to protect jobs, keep manufacturing in America and to promote the build out of solar and energy storage at a time when we need it most.
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