The first half of 2026 is shaping up to deliver a mixed solar outlook globally, according to analysis by Solcast data scientists. Seasonal forecasts from multiple weather agencies suggest a challenging start to 2026 for solar operators in Europe, but early signs of a sunny start to summer, with the opposite in the US with broad negative anomalies forecast for most of the US in February, March, and April after a strong January.
Almost all forecasts suggest a first half of 2026 for Australia, including a particularly clear January for peak summer conditions and whilst most of Asia faces cloudier than normal conditions, Eastern China seems likely to benefit from clear conditions. ENSO variability adds further complexity, with neutral conditions expected early in the year before a possible shift toward El Niño later in 2026.
Across the Americas, conditions vary sharply by region and season. North America begins the year strongly, particularly in January, though the Pacific Northwest bucks the trend with cloudier skies. California is forecast to avoid the heavier cloud cover predicted elsewhere, maintaining relatively favorable conditions. By midyear, approaching peak solar generating season, the southern United States and eastern Mexico are expected to outperform seasonal averages, with late spring and early summer contributing to the gains. This, plus increasing capacity year-on-year, makes it certain that each grid will see new solar records set throughout the year. Central America and much of Argentina and eastern Brazil also feature among the regions likely to see above-average irradiance early in the year.
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