Twitter’s solar sentiment tilts negative as political polarization rises

Solar power has sometimes been more popular than apple pie in America, but its popularity has declined in recent years. Still, the situation is nuanced. Many people who may not appreciate living near a large-scale solar facility nonetheless support solar for personal or local use, provided it is well-sited.

An analysis of comments on Twitter (now known as X) indicates that beginning in 2016, negative posts about solar rose from around 6% to more than 26% of all solar-related posts, after remaining relatively flat since 2013. Although the volume of positive posts varied, it remained somewhat consistent, while neutral posts decreased. A sharp increase in negative posts occurred in 2021 and 2022. As the proportion of negative posts increased (as shown in the chart above), the overall sentiment score dropped significantly, particularly accelerating in 2021.

The study, Sentiment analysis of solar energy in U.S. Cities: a 10‑year analysis using transformer‑based deep learning, found that Twitter became significantly politicized during this period.

The authors noted that Twitter historically had a more Democratic-leaning user base, meaning sentiment measured on the platform may not fully represent broader public opinion. Though they also noted that their analysis concluded in December 2022, three months after Elon Musk acquired the platform.

From 2013 through 2016, Democratic- and Republican-leaning groups showed increasingly positive and converging sentiment, separated by less than three percentage points. After then, sentiment declined for both groups, but the decline among Republicans was steeper, with the gap now nearing 30%.

The authors caution that such divergence could lead to pricing disparities, as political preferences increasingly influence where solar is deployed. The resulting fragmentation might curtail economies of scale, fueling further polarization and uneven development.

The researchers noted that utility-scale solar projects generally received more positive sentiment than smaller installations, partly due to the competitive costs of larger facilities. Additionally, people living in areas with higher solar irradiance and lower wind speeds tended to view solar more positively.

Interestingly, more technical discussions, such as those referencing solar tax credits, net metering and renewable portfolio standards (RPS), did not experience the same increase in negative sentiment. Among these three policy mechanisms, RPS had the highest 10-year average sentiment score at 5.5, compared with 3.05 for net metering and 2.98 for solar tax credits and rebates. Sentiment toward RPS policies steadily increased after 2015, consistent with prior research indicating broad public support for these standards. Net metering was the only policy to show declining sentiment, particularly over the past two years. Relative to overall solar sentiment, renewable portfolio standards remain notably more popular. 

The analysis used transformer-based algorithms, the same technology underpinning modern artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT, to measure sentiment across eight million posts.

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