The global solar industry is expected to install 592 GW of solar capacity in 2024, increasing 33% over the boom year of 2023.
“Low prices for modules are stimulating demand in new markets, but hurting manufacturers, who are competing intensely to maintain market share,” said Jenny Chase, lead analyst, solar, Bloomberg NEF.
Bloomberg said that as of the 3Q report, the world operates 1.2 TW of solar manufacturing capacity. Over 900 GW of modules can be made from the polysilicon production expected in 2024, said BNEF.
BNEF’s global PV build forecast is up 1% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to developments in India and Pakistan, with installations slower than previously expected in Japan and South Africa. Most of the established solar markets continue to build steadily, said the report.
The report highlighted that polysilicon prices have now fallen to $4.70 per kilogram. This is below production cost for nearly all manufacturers. Firms are shutting down factories for maintenance, and Bloomberg reduced its estimate of 2024 polysilicon production to 1.96 million metric tons – still enough to make 900 GW of modules.
Meanwhile module prices have fallen to $0.096 per Watt, the lowest in history. Bloomberg said most solar manufacturers are expected to report losses this year. Some of their convertible bonds are showing signs of weakness, and some will not survive this cycle, said the firm.
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