Solar module manufacturers are struggling to raise PV module prices despite higher production costs following a recent silver price surge, which hit a record $83.62 per ounce on Dec. 28.
“It is challenging, if not impossible, to pass on the entire cost increase to end users,” Hanwei Wu, editorial director at OPIS, told pv magazine. “Solar manufacturers have been concerned about rising silver prices since at least 2022, but one key difference this time is the speed of the increase. Silver has been on a near-continuous bull run since last April, rising more than 180% over the past year.”
Wu added that there is little relief from other input costs, as aluminum and polysilicon prices in China have also increased, more than offsetting softer prices for components such as glass and resin.
“Raising selling prices to match rising production costs has been a struggle,” he said. “Our assessments show that FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices have risen just over 30% since mid-December 2025, broadly in line with the increase in silver prices over that period. However, over the course of 2025 from trough to peak, cell prices rose only about 60%, far below silver’s 180% increase.”
The module segment is faring even worse, according to Wu. “From trough to peak in 2025, FOB China TOPCon module prices are up only about 15%, and just 7% since mid-December. There is clear pressure for manufacturers to raise cell and module prices, but the extent of cost pass-through is constrained by downstream demand, overcapacity, and policy uncertainty.”
Cell manufacturers appear to be the most exposed to the combined impact of rising wafer and silver prices. In a market where full cost pass-through is difficult, margin compression is already evident in downstream segments, along with production curtailments across the supply chain.
“In addition to record-high silver prices and rising wafer costs, China has removed export tax rebates for solar photovoltaic products,” Wu said. “Taken together, these factors create a rare bullish mix for prices over the past two to three years, even though the path to resolving overcapacity in the PV industry remains unclear.”
It remains uncertain whether silver prices will repeat the scale of their 2025 increase. However, efforts to reduce silver usage in modules have been underway for some time, and the recent price surge is likely to accelerate this trend.
“Silver has overtaken polysilicon as the single largest cost component in modules, accounting for around 16% to 17% of total costs, while silver paste represents up to 30% of total cell costs,” Wu said. “It is therefore no surprise that manufacturers across all major cell technologies are pursuing silver reduction, although the technical pathways differ. Aiko, Jinko and Longi have already launched, or plan to launch, cells with reduced silver content. If cost savings and performance targets are met, competitive pressure alone will drive broader adoption.”
According to CPIA data for 2025, heterojunction (HJT) cell silver consumption has fallen to 75 mg per cell, a 34.8% year-on-year reduction and the lowest among mainstream n-type technologies. TOPCon stands at 86 mg per cell, down 21.1%, while back-contact (BC) technology remains the highest at 135 mg per cell.
“From a silver-use perspective, HJT leads near-term de-silverization through compatibility with silver-coated copper, while BC offers a long-term advantage via copper electroplating,” Wu said. “TOPCon, however, is constrained by its high-temperature process architecture, which makes it more vulnerable to copper oxidation. After two years of margin compression, the industry has cut R&D spending, with many manufacturers prioritizing survival over innovation. The current silver crisis may act as a catalyst that favors companies that invested early in alternative metallization.”
The surge in silver prices may represent an external commodity shock, but it could also accelerate consolidation in the oversupplied PV industry and influence the choice of the next mainstream solar cell technology.
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