Around 3.6 TW of solar is expected to be installed globally between 2025 and 2030, according to the IEA‘s latest analysis.
The agency’s medium-term forecast report, “Renewables 2025,” predicts solar will account for almost 80% of the 4.6 TW of renewable energy that will be added across the world over the second half of the decade.
The report says low costs, faster permitting and broad social acceptance will continue to drive the accelerating adoption of solar. Year-on-year analysis predicts a record year for solar additions in 2025, nearing 600 GW of added capacity, largely due to an increase in distributed solar applications.
Annual installations are then expected to slow slightly between 2026 and 2028, with IEA citing slowdowns in China and the United States linked to evolving policy timelines. The agency is then forecasting over 600 GW of solar will be added in 2029, before moving closer to the 700 GW threshold in 2030.
IEA’s latest report lowers its renewable energy growth forecasting for 2025-2030 by 5% compared to last year’s equivalent publication, corresponding to a loss of 248 GW of renewable capacity.
Solar accounts for more than 70% of this absolute reduction, mainly in utility-scale projects, and is largely down to forecast reductions in China, equivalent to 129 GW less solar, and the United States.
IEA is expecting 140 GW less of solar will be installed in the United States by 2030 than it predicted last year, due to factors including FEOC restrictions and permitting suspensions on federal lands. The largest relative impact is on distributed solar, and in particular the US residential market, which will be most affected by the scheduled expiration of residential solar tax credits at the end of this year.
In contrast, other markets have seen their solar installation forecasts increase. IEA revised the EU’s forecast up slightly, mostly for utility-scale solar capacity in Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland. India’s forecast is up almost 10% across all renewable technologies, while the Middle East and North Africa’s capacity has been revised up 23%, largely down to faster-than-expected developments in Saudi Arabia.
The report says that 80% of countries will see renewable power capacity grow faster between 2025 and 2030 than it did over the previous five years. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol highlighted Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and several Southeast Asian countries as areas set to see solar surges.
Elsewhere in the report, renewables are forecast to become the largest global energy source by the end of the decade, used for 43% of electricity generation by 2030, with solar overtaking hydropower as the largest renewable energy source.
IEA’s current projection expects 16,200 TWh of electricity generation from renewables in 2030, which is almost 850 TWh less than last year’s estimates. It has been lowered due to the revised capacity forecast and increased levels of solar and wind curtailment.
Rising levels of curtailment and negative electricity prices signal the need for urgent investment in grids, storage and flexible generation, the report adds. IEA warns that while several countries are beginning to respond with capacity and storage auctions, much more will be needed to ensure that variable renewables are integrated in a cost-efficient and secure way.
Earlier this year, analysis by London-based data analytics and consulting company GlobalData forecast the world will have deployed 4.8 TW of solar by the end of 2030, increasing to 7.6 TW by 2035.
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