The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon outside China, was assessed at $22.068/kg, or $0.050/W this week, unchanged from the previous week on the back of buy-sell indications heard.
On Oct. 1, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) announced a preliminary decision on countervailing duties (CVD) for solar cells and modules imported from Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with rates ranging from 0.14% to 292.61%, depending on the company and region. This has become the most significant development in the global polysilicon market in recent months.
Despite that market sources generally agree that the CVD rates for some major Chinese manufacturers came in lower than expected, they believe a boost on spot transactions is unlikely until the preliminary anti-dumping (AD) ruling on Nov. 27, as AD rates have historically been 10 to 20 times higher than CVD rates.
While global polysilicon market activity remains relatively quiet as buyers await AD rate updates before deciding whether to resume previous purchase volumes, the effects of potential changes—such as the U.S. presidential election, updates on a combination of solar policies, including AD/CVD tariff for the four Southeast Asian countries, product traceability requirements, and local manufacturing incentives—are reportedly already being felt, with delays in solar projects emerging as a result.
Industry sources expect a revival of the global polysilicon spot market if the total tax rate for certain manufacturers in the four Southeast Asian countries exporting cells and modules to the U.S.—including Section 201 tariffs, AD, and CVD—remains below 30%, as this would allow their production capacity to be sustained to some extent.
China Mono Grade, OPIS’ assessment for mono-grade polysilicon prices in the country, remained steady at CNY 33.625 ($4.73)/kg, or CNY 0.076/W this week. China Mono Premium, OPIS’ price assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used for n-type ingot production, likewise held steady at CNY 40.125/kg, or CNY 0.090/W, unchanged from the previous week.
The long-anticipated revival of the polysilicon trading market following the Chinese Golden Week holiday has yet to materialize, as wafer manufacturers’ purchasing interest remains weak, with orders being placed only to sustain basic production needs.
Polysilicon futures trading, initially anticipated to alleviate excess inventory, has shown little practical effect. Chinese polysilicon producers have raised concerns over a clause in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange’s rules that prohibits storing polysilicon produced more than three months prior for futures trading, despite companies typically offering a 1- to 2-year warranty on their products. A maximum storage period of nine months has also been set, causing some traders to postpone their procurement plans, as the current lack of trading activity has weakened their confidence in stockpiling.
Major Chinese polysilicon producers are intensifying their control over prices and market share, especially a leading Siemens polysilicon producer plan to ramp up its new production capacity in the fourth quarter. Additionally, a key producer of FBR granular polysilicon has recently increased its operating rate, according to sources.
Insiders agree that ongoing efforts are needed to address excess polysilicon capacity. The most probable and optimistic scenario for the Chinese polysilicon market in the fourth quarter is to maintain current prices.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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