To quote baseball great Yogi Berra, “it’s déjà vu all over again.” The year 2026 will mark another set of defining moments for solar, but those changes will look very different depending on which market we’re talking about. That is to say, the U.S. market has recently faced it share of headwinds, but the industry has been here before, and solar professionals at every level know how to navigate these cycles of change.
Even during periods of uncertainty, reports continue to project an optimistic long-term future for solar. In fact, the technology maintained its position as the most cost-competitive power generation source throughout 2025. Against that backdrop, three themes will define the coming year: the rise of the U.S. solar ‘middle market,’ a breakout year for repowering, and the continued shift toward businesses that can thrive without leaning on government incentives.
The year of repowering
While probably true in many markets, in the U.S. specifically, repowering will become an increasingly central part of the mix that fuels the solar industry in 2026. As electronic components degrade over time, homeowners with older solar systems and inverters are often left with reduced efficiency, lost savings—and, in some cases, no generation at all. This creates a significant opportunity for companies with lean business models and strong service networks that focus relentlessly on bringing these systems back online.
Consider that approximately one million residential solar systems in the U.S. are already more than 10 years old, with another 400,000 reaching that milestone annually for the next five years. At the same time, the industry continues to cycle through waves of installers entering and exiting the market, leaving many system owners effectively orphaned and waiting for someone to resolve issues that are often basic but mission-critical. Speaking to this is an analysis from SolarInsure, which found more than 100 installer bankruptcy filings in 2024, a record high and a clear signal precipitating the needs for repowering resources and services.
Repowering, however, is only one piece of the broader 2026 landscape. The year will also separate the wheat from the chaff as companies are forced to operate with fewer government incentives to provide artificial acceleration. Those who can minimize soft costs, drive efficiency, and consistently deliver customer value will rise above the rest.
Middle market
For U.S. installers, the middle of the market will be the sector’s growth engine in 2026. We define mid-sized regional installers as companies operating in fewer than three states or roughly five cities. Regional, mid-sized installers are well-positioned to outpace both large national firms and small, hyper-local players. The largest companies will continue to struggle under the weight of complexity. Things like high overhead, broad geographic footprints, and operational sprawl. Whereas the smallest companies will face a tightening market and a lack of scale.
There’s a unique balance that mid-sized installers strike; they can achieve efficiency while staying nimble, hands-on, and deeply embedded in their local communities. They also often handle both sales and installation, rather than outsourcing the function, and remain closely connected to customers over the life of the system, and are in the industry for the long term. As the market stabilizes and quality becomes paramount, this will be the segment to watch.
Global safety rules
In regions overseas where rapid shutdown rules take effect on January 1, 2026, the installer landscape will divide into two groups: those who are ready and those who are scrambling to catch up. The underlying principle that first responders should be confident that a solar system is truly powered down is driving new rules and regulations around the world. Many of these new requirements are modeled directly after U.S. electrical code standards that have been in place here for years.
These codes are now making their way into markets such as Thailand, the Philippines, Brazil, and others. However, installer adoption is mixed. Many will wait until regulators deliver a “slap on the wrist” before adjusting their processes, which can lead to costly redesigns, rework, and noncompliant installations.
If you look at our own company’s portfolio for example, our diversity across roughly 100 markets puts this shift into perspective. We sell to countries with stringent rapid shutdown codes, markets with large-scale projects such as utility-grade installations in Spain and floating solar in Brazil, and a dozen European countries where no rapid shutdown code exists at all. This breadth has enabled us to reallocate resources and maintain growth, even through uneven global market conditions, and contributed to revenue growth every quarter of 2025.
Fortunately, even for installers with little prior exposure to these requirements, the path forward is straightforward. Reliable, widely available MLPE devices designed for rapid shutdown, along with other advanced safety features, are already accessible in most regions. With proper training and adherence to guidelines, installers will find these technologies intuitive to deploy and commission. As a result, 2026 may also become an inflection point for global alignment around safety and system-level protection.
Total quality solar
Taken together, these trends point to a year defined by operational excellence, quality, and the kind of durable business practices that position the solar industry for long-term success.
Repowering will address the growing fleet of aging systems, mid-sized regional installers will anchor the next wave of U.S. residential growth, and global safety standards will elevate expectations for system design and deployment. As these trends converge, the companies that succeed in 2026 will be those employing their own vision of what Tigo calls Total Quality Solar (TQS): reliability, transparency, and customer-first performance across every part of the value chain.
JD Dillon is chief marketing officer and customer experience officer at Tigo Energy. His experience spans the U.S. Armed Forces, semiconductors, solid-state drive, and the solar industry. His functional leadership has had an impact on pricing, new product introduction, customer experience, and communications at all levels.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
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